Congress returns for lame-duck session
Only 3 of 12 spending bills passed; Dec 11 funding deadline fight begins. Outgoing GOP majority may rush full-year funding.
Watch: Broad market
Weekly newsletter · Nov 9 – Nov 22, 2026 · issued 2026-11-07
Market Volatility Watch
Market is already on edge (VIX above 25 after the Nov 5 AI selloff). The two biggest swing events are Tuesday's CPI and Nvidia's report on Nov 17; the Fed decision (Dec 9) and shutdown deadline (Dec 11) sit just beyond this window.
Positive likely tailwind for stocks
Negative likely headwind or risk
Neutral could swing either way
S&P 500
7,376.86
Nasdaq
24,579.42
Dow
51,285.73
VIX
25.64
10-yr yield
4.859%
Closing levels 2026-11-06
This week · Nov 9–15
Dated events and what's in play all week.
2 positive 2 negative 3 neutral
US–Iran peace talks (Qatar-led)
Progress has cut oil 4–7% in a day; lower oil eases inflation but hits energy stocks. A breakdown flips this red.
Watch: XLE, COP, EOG, MPC, PSX
AI data-center restriction headlines after Democratic sweep
Nov 5 selloff (S&P −4%, chips −12%) came from fears ~45% of planned US capacity could be restricted.
Watch: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, VRT, SMH
October CPI (8:30 AM ET)
September CPI was the hottest in 5 months on energy. Another hot print raises odds of a December Fed hike.
Watch: SPY, QQQ, rate-sensitive growth
Original US–China truce date passes (now extended to Jan 10, 2027)
No tariff snap-back this week; the cliff moves to January.
Watch: AAPL, NVDA, retail importers
Veterans Day — bond market closed, stocks open
Thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves around CPI.
Watch: Treasuries
October PPI (8:30 AM ET)
Wholesale inflation confirms or softens the CPI read.
Watch: SPY, financials
Next week · Nov 16–22
Scheduled events for the following week.
0 positive 1 negative 8 neutral
Anthropic IPO (reported, may slip)
Reported valuation cut to ~$1–1.3T from ~$2T; a gauge of appetite for AI.
Watch: AI and cloud names
October retail sales (8:30 AM ET)
Gauge of consumer strength into the holidays.
Watch: XRT, WMT, TGT, AMZN
Home Depot & Disney earnings (before open)
Housing and consumer-spending read.
Watch: HD, DIS, MHK
Nvidia earnings (after close)
The single biggest event for AI stocks — binary after the 9% drop on Nov 5. A beat could spark a relief rally; a miss could extend the selloff.
Watch: NVDA, SMH, AMD, AVGO, TSM
FOMC minutes from Oct 27–28 meeting (2:00 PM ET)
Two officials voted to hike in October; minutes may show more support for a December hike.
Watch: Rates, growth stocks
Target, Lowe's, TJX (before open); Palo Alto (after close)
Retail and cybersecurity reads; tariff commentary.
Watch: TGT, LOW, TJX, PANW
APEC summit in Shenzhen — expected Trump–Xi meeting
Could extend trade peace or flare tensions over Taiwan, chips and export controls.
Watch: NVDA, AAPL, TSM, BABA
Walmart, Alibaba (before open); Intuit, Ross (after close)
Consumer health and China read.
Watch: WMT, BABA, INTU, ROST
Monthly options expiration
Large expirations can amplify moves into the close.
Watch: SPY, QQQ
On the horizon & always-on risks
Beyond the two-week window, or could hit at any time.
0 positive 6 negative 2 neutral
Fed decision, dot plot and press conference
Fed hiked in September and held at 3.75–4%. Strong October jobs (165K vs 65K expected) raised hike odds.
Watch: Whole market
Government funding deadline — shutdown risk from Dec 12
Lame-duck Congress must pass funding; shutdowns can delay economic data.
Watch: Broad market, defense, gov contractors
Section 301 'excess capacity' tariff probe — rates not yet set
Open since March; a surprise announcement could be large.
Watch: Importers, industrials
Taiwan arms package and chip export controls (MATCH Act)
Tighter controls on Huawei/SMIC and Taiwan tension weigh on chips.
Watch: NVDA, AMD, TSM, ASML, LRCX
Canada Section 338 tariffs (50% on some autos, alcohol, dairy)
Outside USMCA exemptions; escalation risk.
Watch: Autos, consumer staples
Pharma Section 232 tariffs (10–100%)
Rate changes hit drug makers.
Watch: LLY, PFE, TEVA, BIIB
Democratic Congress sworn in
Plans to force votes on Trump tariffs (good for importers) and to scrutinize AI, banks and crypto.
Watch: Retail, AI, banks, crypto
US–China trade truce expires
If not renewed, higher China tariffs could return and Beijing could retaliate.
Watch: Chips, retail, industrials